Post Deflection Risk Analysis in the NEOShield project

Dr. Siegfried Eggl
Institute of Celestial Mechanics and Calculation of Ephemerides,
Paris Observatory, France

Even-though we believe to have the capabilities to avert larger potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. The target selection process for such deflection demonstrations is demanding, since physical, dynamical and engineering aspects have to be considered in great detail.  One of the top priorities of such a demonstration mission is, of course, that a harmless asteroid should not be turned into a potentially hazardous object (PHO). Large uncertainties in an asteroid’s physical parameters as well as the additional uncertainties introduced during a deflection attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of post deflection impact probabilities.

Assuming worst case scenarios regarding the orbital, physical and mitigation induced uncertainties, we discuss the impact risk analysis of a list of potential targets for the mitigation demo-mission proposed in the framework of the European NEOShield project.

The talk will be given in English

Mon, 10-11-2014, 16:30 (Gathering at 16:00)

Classroom, ground floor, Library, Aerospace Eng.

Light refreshments will be served before the lecture

Post Deflection Risk Analysis in the NEOShield project